Phase III – Scenario Testing

The general approach will be to use the BREJT team’s adopted TransCAD model as the analysis platform, since it has strong GIS features for configuring or quantifying alternative development or transportation approaches. The TransCAD model will also be set up to automatically calculate a list of key performance indicators or outcomes. These would include accessibility, exposure to pollution and health risk, and a variety of other measures which will be used to relate how well a given plan (scenario) achieves regional goals in relation to the minority/low income community. Many of these performance measures and associated analytic tests have been outlined in a recent technical document produced under the FHWA work scope, and will be reviewed and amended as necessary for this application. As part of the development of this capability, an effort will be made to test the procedures on the existing adopted Long Range Transportation Plan for the Baltimore region (BMC’s Transportation 2030) relative to current conditions, and the most recent Transportation Improvement Program as to how well they enhance minority/low-income transportation and quality of life goals. We will then apply the procedure to the testing of alternative scenarios for the I-95 corridor

The following scenarios will provide the basis for the EJ assessment:

1.) 2000 Base Year conditions

2.)2030 Adopted Forecast and Plan

3.) 2030 Alternative 1: More affordable housing opportunities in suburban areas near jobs, complemented with smart growth development concepts and targeted subregional transit service improvements.

4.) 2030 Alternative 2: More jobs created in proximity to existing minority/low income communities, with allowance for smart growth mixing of uses, improved pedestrianization, enhanced transit, and separation of housing concentrations from transportation corridors.

5.) 2030 Alternative 3: One or more alternatives where both jobs and housing opportunities are moved in an effort to improve balance in both city and suburban areas